Bitcoin’s Next Bottom: Lessons from History and What 2025 Could Bring - AI Perspective
Introduction
Bitcoin has always been a story of cycles — explosive rallies followed by painful corrections, and then long periods of quiet accumulation before the next surge. With the April 2024 halving behind us, many investors are asking the same question: where will Bitcoin’s next bottom be?
The answer isn’t straightforward, but by blending historical halving patterns with current market signals, we can outline realistic scenarios.
🔄 A Look Back: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle
Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a “halving,” where block rewards are cut in half. This has historically set the stage for a powerful bull run, followed by an equally brutal bear market.
2012–2016 Cycle: BTC peaked in 2013 (~$1,100), then bottomed in 2014 (~$200).
2016–2020 Cycle: BTC peaked in 2017 (~$20,000), then bottomed in 2018 (~$3,200).
2020–2024 Cycle: BTC peaked in 2021 (~$69,000), then bottomed in 2022 (~$15,500).
The pattern is clear: Year 1 after the halving usually brings a major rally, followed by a steep correction in Year 2.
📊 Where We Are Now (2025)
We are currently in Year 1 of the 2024–2028 cycle. Historically, this is the period when Bitcoin pushes toward its cycle top, usually within 12–18 months after the halving.
Some analysts see BTC reaching $150,000–$200,000 by late 2025.
But even in a bull phase, mid-cycle corrections are common. A 20–40% dip could easily set a temporary bottom before new highs.
🔮 Possible Bottom Scenarios
1. Mild Correction / Local Bottom
Range: $95,000 – $110,000
Probability: ~50%
Why: On-chain data shows strong support near $100K. This would mirror past mid-cycle dips without breaking long-term momentum.
2. Moderate Bear-Phase Bottom
Range: $70,000 – $90,000
Probability: ~35%
Why: If macro headwinds worsen (tight monetary policy, weak equities, regulation), BTC could revisit deeper support.
3. Severe Bear Market Bottom (2026–2027)
Range: $50,000 – $70,000
Probability: ~15%
Why: After a cycle top (possibly $150K–$200K), a historical 65–75% drawdown would bring us here. This wouldn’t likely happen until Year 2 of the cycle.
🎯 The Bottom Line
Near-Term (2025): Bitcoin’s next bottom is most likely in the $95k–$110k range — a healthy correction within an ongoing bull cycle.
Long-Term (2026–2027): The true cycle bottom could arrive much lower, around $50k–$70k, after the eventual cycle peak and subsequent bear market.
Bitcoin’s history doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it often rhymes. If the past three cycles are any guide, we may see one more big rally before the real pain sets in.
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